I remember when 8TB SATA SSD was $350
This bubble is going to become the entire market, isn’t it. Until it becomes too big to fail because 80% of the workforce is tied up in it. Then it is allowed to pop, costing the western world everything, all going into the pockets of the super rich, and we get to start over.
That’s the entire point. It’s a scam.
Then it is allowed to pop, costing the western world everything, all going into the pockets of the super rich, and we get to start over.
After the bailouts at the expense of the poor, of course.
it becomes too big to fail because 80% of the workforce is tied up in it
In 2008, banking sector and auto industry needed bailouts for the investor/financial class. Certainly, there was no need to layoff core banking employees, if government support was the last resort to keep the doors open AND gain controlling stake over future banking profitablity in a hopefully sustainable (low risk in addition to low climate/global destruction) fashion. The auto bailout did have harsher terms than the banking bailout, and recessions definitely harm the sector, but the bailouts were definitely focused on the executives/shareholders who have access to political friendships that result in gifts instead of truly needed lifelines, or wider redistribution of benefits from sustainable business.
The point, is that workforce is a “talking point” with no actual relevance in bailouts/too big to fail. That entire stock market wealth is concentrated in the sector, and that we have to all give them the rest of our money (and militarist backed surveillance freedom) or “China will win” at the only sector we pretend to have a competitive chance in, is why our establishment needs another “too big to fail moment”. We’ve started QE ahead of the crash this time.
Work force is relatively small in AI sector. Big construction, but relatively low operations employment. It displaces other hiring too.
the shoe event horizon.
AI has taken more things since it’s big push to be adopted in the public sector.
Clean Air
Water
Fair electricity bills
Ram
GPUs
SSDs
Jobs
Other people’s art and writing.
There are no benefit to this stuff. It is just grifting.
Also free and fair elections. Fidesz published a clearly AI-generated document claiming it was a leak from current oppposition party Tisza, as a real program.
Yet another chapter in the fucking AI craze started up by them fucking techbros.
Also, someone forgot that in some places in the world, people have to use older PCs with SATA drives. That, until their discontinuation announcements, Crucial and Samsung SATA drives were several tiers better than, say, those cheapo Ramsta drives.
Discontinuing outdated tech has nothing to do with AI. SATA SSDs need to be retired. NVME is superior and widely available.
When I built a PC a couple of years ago when I really didn’t need one, then over specced it just because. I’m very happy right now as the prices are insane, feel like I could sell the PC for more than it cost me which mental.
What if we get a lack-of-new-computers-crisis before the AI-bubble bursts
Don’t worry, you can use AI on anything that can access the internet! No need to ever have personal (let alone private) thoughts - I’m sorry, data - again.
MS has been trying to get you to give up your personal computer for years. Do everything in the cloud, please! Even gaming with Stadia! And now they’re getting their wish. All it took was running the entire global economy.
Doing everything in the cloud is crazy. I’m so glad I jumped over to Linux a couple years ago!
Still need hardware to run it on ☹️
Me with my 5 lenovo thinkcentres: 😎
awesome! Thank you shitty ai.
So maybe that computer I just bought will be my last for a while then.
I have 4x 6TB HDDs in my NAS. Around 5 years ago I decided to simply replace any dead drives with 6TB ones instead of my previous strategy of slowly upgrading their size. I figured I could swap to 8TB 2.5" SATA SSDs that had just started to exist and would surely only get cheaper in the future…
M.2 to sata converters will probably come to your rescue. But probably not as cheap as you were hoping.
In my head I thought one could make relatively cheap high capacity in 2.5" SATA form factor by having more NAND chips of lower capacity. You give up speed and PCB space but that’s fine since bandwidth and IOPS are limited by SATA anyway and there’s plenty of space compared to M.2.
Turns out to not shake out that way, controller ICs that support SATA aren’t coming out any more, and NAND ICs are internally stacked to use up channels while not taking up PCB space.
There are some enterprise options, but they’re mad expensive.
I’ve cracked open a few faulty sata SSDs. Quite a few of the recent models are just 2242 or 2230 m.2 ssd’s with a converter. Even bigger 2TB ones.
The leak comes after another report detailed that Samsung has raised DDR5 memory prices by up to 60%.
MF… And why they wind down SSD production this time? Last time was 2 years ago, because the SSD prices were low and they wanted to raise them (which happened).
Because AI is better for €€€
May all bankrupt when the bubble bursts.
we all know as soon as big bad chip daddy comes back with a big discount everyone not in this thread (and even some that are) will spread their cheeks and beg for more.
humans are dumb greedy little assholes that have zero willpower. that’s why it’s so easy to manipulate us.
Just bought 2tb for $89.
Nice, where’d you get that deal?
More importantly, what brand, type and/or specs. It’s easy to get cheap disks with crap performance. I have a few around that we quickly dubbed “Super Slow Disks”.
HDTCA40XK3CA
https://www.shopmyexchange.com/
For vets. No taxes and shipping is free or a standard $5 charge.
Nice, that’s awesome.
If prices get bad enough, I’ll start buying from there and selling out of my trunk.
Lol may as well stock up now. It’s coming
The ai crash is going to slap the tech industry hard
Not just the tech industry. A huge proportion of the US economy is made up of betting on AI. Like the crash of 2008 (but worse, some predict) it will hurt everyone but the richest, who will become even richer.
There are a number of simultaneous bubbles at the moment, the AI one being a lot like the Internet bubble of the late 90s but possibly worse (bigger share of GDP and it seems there is actually less value in most of the tech invested in as “AI” than on the Internet-related tech) and at the same time there is a financial debt bubble like in 2007 (in the US mainly around loans for car purchase, but more in general overall consumer indebtness has reached the 2007 levels), a worldwide realestate bubble (measured in terms of house-price to income ratios) and a stockmarket bubble measured in terms of P/E ratios, just to mention the biggest ones.
The risk is that when one blows the rest blow by contagium: something the 2008 Crash showed us is that in modern markets when there are sudden large losses on a asset class it pulls money over to cover them from all other asset classes, in turn creating downwards price pressure in those other asset classes, which in turn might cause price collapses there with large losses and that will pull even more money out from other asset classes. IMHO assets classes with historically high valuation not backed by fundamentals (for example stocks with P/E which are 10+ times the historical average) are likely to be far more likely to collapse when money gets pulled away from them to cover losses elsewhere. Also there is the panic factor: fearing exactly what I describe, many investors will preemptivelly sell their assets in those assets classes they feel as more speculative - i.e. less supported by fundamentals - possibly creating the very problem they fear in those markets by starting a stampede to the exits.
All this to say that I expect this one when it blows up will be bigger than 2008 and 2000, possibly bigger than both of those combined.
Going by inflation adjusted market cap values, it certainly looks like the financial facet of the AI companies alone are bigger than both those events… This is going to be beyond messy…
Is there anything a normal person can do to insulate against it to any degree?
AFAIK this has already been a problem, you can find Samsung M.2 SSDs for cheaper than Samsung SATA SSDs at the same capacity, because their cloud customers have all flown past classic SATA/SAS for NVME U.2 and U.3, which is much more similar to M.2 due to NVME.
I was planning on adding a big SSD array to my server which has a bunch of external 2.5 SAS slots, but it ended up being cheaper and faster to buy a 4 slot M.2 PCIe card and buy 4 M.2 drives instead.
Putting it on a x16 PCIe slot gives me 4 lanes per drive with bifurication, which gets me the advertised maximum possible speed on PCIe 4.
Whether or not the RAM surge will affect chip production capacity is the real issue. It seems all 3 OEMs could effectively reduce capacity for all other components after slugging billions of dollars into HBM RAM. It wouldn’t just be SSDs, anything that relies on the same supply chain could be heavily affected.
Exactly this. Micron ended their consumer RAM. Sansung here is just stopping producing something that is arguably outdated, and has a perfectly fine, already more available, most often cheaper or equivalent modern replacement.
I take issue with this forced distinction they are making
Micron, like Samsung and SK Hynix, already supplies memory chips directly to third-party brands such as G.Skill and ADATA. Even without Crucial-branded kits, Micron DRAM continues to reach consumers through other manufacturers, meaning overall supply remains largely unchanged.
Nobody ever officially suggested the Crucial supply was likely to shift to the other manufacturers for consumers. On the contrary people expect this to be a step towards a general redistribution of manufacturing capacity towards HBM for parallel compute products.
By comparison, Samsung exiting SATA SSDs removes an entire class of finished consumer products from one of the world’s largest NAND suppliers. Tom argues that this is why the Samsung move is “worse” for consumers: it directly affects how many drives are available, not just who sells them.
If you wanted you could make the same argument as for Micron. Who says the Samsung NAND couldn’t be bought by other OEMs to make consumer SSDs. It’s just as possible as the Micron supply shifting to other OEMs who make consumer RAM sticks.
To me neither are likely. The manufacturing capacity both companies are pulling from the consumer market in both cases is going to go to the higher profit margin parallel compute server market. Neither is worse than the other, they are both equally bad news for us consumers.
On the contrary people expect this to be a step towards a general redistribution of manufacturing capacity towards HBM for parallel compute products.
That is where much of the overall wafers are going. But that would be happening regardless of whether the Crucial brand is around or not. Even if Crucial was still a thing going forward, those same wafers would still be going towards HBM.
I think he hit the nail on the head when he said that Crucial being cancelled is just a symptom of our shit market, not one of the causes. It makes zero difference.
Who says the Samsung NAND couldn’t be bought by other OEMs to make consumer SSDs
His point is that Samsung (the manufacturer) is scrapping production, not that Samsung (the consumer brand) is stopping selling products that otherwise are still being produced and sold under different brand names.
Stopping production of something sold under many brands is obviously a lot worse than a brand stopping sales of something that other brands will still sell (albeit in lower quantities in previous years due to HBM production being ramped up at the cost of DDR5).
Why would ending sata ssd production create price pressure for m2 ssds? If anything, they should be able to produce more of those.
