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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • The regions Russia has invaded have large unexploited oil and more importantly gas reserves. Not only that, but some of the gas pipeline, which supply Russian gas to the EU run through that region. So if Ukraine holds them, it is fairly easy to them to replace Russian gas.

    For the US the war is extremely usefull. Russia gave the EU a somewhat independent energy supply. But the war against Ukraine is just too dangerous. Especially with Russia threatening EU countries on a regular bases. So they turned to other suppliers and the biggest oil and gas exporter is currently the US. Due to the war a third of fossil gas used by the EU is from the US right now. That is a huge dependence.

    As for oil, Ukraine is obviosuly very willing to attack Russian oil infrastructure. So the US is litterally taking out a competitor fairly long term here.

    Something similar was happening with Iran. Israel actually attacked some oil and gas infrastructure in Iran as well. Obviously the entire region is always close to explode again.

    This is also a good move against China. They import a lot of oil from Russia, Venezuela and Iran. So if the US can control Venezuela and take out Russia and Iran, then it is able to really punish China in a war. That is why China is going for EVs, renewables and coal. They can have those inside China. Something similar is happening inside the EU as well, but less strategic.

    Also back to Ukraine. It is more complex then that. Ukraine is culturally close to Russia, so them removing a dictator might well be a bad example to the Russian people, from Putins point of view. It also acted as a buffer between Russia and EU/NATO, has a lot of farm land and due to Soviet legacy an economy, which integrates well into Russia, as well as a lot of Russian speakers. The war also helps Putin internally, as an excuse to strengthen the hold over the country and remove competition.











  • Germany has a 3.7% unemployment rate, which is going up a bit, but that is quite far away from mass unemployment Germany faced when Hitler took over.

    This is just the combination of EV taking over and general lower car sales hitting the industry hard. It has to happen and is honestly a good thing long term. Other sectors of the economy are doing okay and baby boomers are retiring, so the work force is shrinking anyway. The situation is not even close to what happened in Germany when Hitler took over.






  • The force is not large enough to invade Venezuela. This is more of a force you position if you want to do some larger scale regime change operation. You know some mercenaries combined with Venezuelans who hate the government. Remove Maduro and US puppet. The flyover is meant as as sign that the Venezuelan military is behind Maduro.

    Also just to say it, this can backfire badly. Venezula has a shit ton of gangs, is a massive country and to a large part covered in rainforest. Not a good combination.