• 2 Posts
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Joined 9 months ago
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Cake day: April 10th, 2025

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  • A… commerce degree?

    Forgive my American dialect, but is that… Canadian… for a Business degree?

    Uh anyway, myself having degrees in Econ and Poli Sci, here’s my attempt at explaining it, at this late date:

    Sunk Cost Fallacy.

    IE, its now essentially its own self-perpetuating delusion, its own bubble all in and of itself.

    How did it get to this point?

    Uh, Elon is a con artist.

    See the same part of the Poli Sci textbooks that attempt to answer ‘Why do people who are directly, negatively impacted by Republican policies keep voting for them?’

    Though at that point we may need to just delve more into Psychology, groupthink, socially performed identities, cults, etc.


  • Yeah ok so you’re levered up, think everyone else doing the same thing are ‘fucking stupid’ ‘idiots’, dumber than you, because you have the secret sauce to doing it slightly differently.

    I will now quote my original comment:

    … you’ve got the day traders, and they almost always get their clocks cleaned, they just develop a neurotic-obsessive personality based on ‘no, I’m the one guy that can outsmart the market’.

    I didn’t expect one to actually appear, but, well hey there ya go.

    I guess I should also amend ‘grandiose narcissist’ to my psych profile of the kind of person that does what you’re doing.

    Here, lemme throw the ZeroHedge motto at you:

    “On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”

    Good luck with your dance.


  • … right.

    At no point did you deny that you’re using leverage.

    Which means that if your understanding of ‘how it all works’ is… wrong… in any significant way…

    Well then your personal situation unwinds in a micro version of how the rest of the economy currently is.

    Your strategy relies on never making a significant mistake.

    Statistically, you will.


    Oh right, also this:

    A few million is nothing.

    Maybe enough to confidently own a pretty nice home.

    Assuming the starving mob doesn’t visit you.

    In terms of fixing society?

    That’s roughly on the scale of helping hundreds or thousands in your local community, on an ongoing basis.

    Nothing, in the grand scheme of things.


    … A couple million?

    Jeff Bezos makes ~3 million dollars in a single hour.

    An hour.

    Try and square that, really try and think about that.

    That house you wanna get, that non profit you wanna set up?

    That you took huge risks for, for multiple years, some how lucky enough to never fuck up?

    That’s an hour of Jeff sleeping.

    He could see your house, or envision that non profit in a dream, and then on a whim, just buy 8 of them when he wakes up.

    The solution to this, to trying to fix society, is not trying to beat them at their own game.

    The solution is breaking the rules of the game.

    After all… that’s how they got to be where they are.


  • Yes, and then the trick is timing your exit or restructuring into countercyclicals … at the right time.

    And timing is the part almost everyone fucks up.

    Also, if you’re ‘buying low and selling high’, and you’re up 5000%+ ytd?

    Then you’re basically daytrading, which basically means this is a full on part time job for you, at least…

    … and while did you say you’re not shortselling, you did not say you’re not using any leverage.

    So uh yeah, best of luck, hope you can keep up the perfectly timed dance, and never miss a beat, nor miss an upcoming time signature change.



  • Way, way back in the day, when the primary model of stocks and the stock market was…

    I buy 1 share of Company X stock, for Y dollars, and once a year, it pays me Z dollars as a dividend…

    Yes, with that paradigm, it made a lot more sense to say that this ‘drove engagement’… because a stock operated more like a miniature bond in/for a company.

    But, now the whole model is ‘stock price must go up forever’, nest eggs are capital gains realized upon retirement, that you take loans out against to avoid paying cap gains tax…

    …not dividends gradually paid into a growing retirement savings account, managed by a regional or local bank / credit union.

    Which entirely blows up that way of thinking.

    Yeah, it used to be the case that what we now call a ‘passive income stream’… yeah, you used to be able to do that by just buying some decent dividend paying stocks.

    And you were thus incentivized to be present for shareholder votes and such, to manage the governance of your investment, your income stream.


  • Former econometrician here:

    Yes. Correct.

    Ever since stock buybacks became the bog standard default, and P/E ratios are between ‘significantly elevated’ and ‘completely fucking delusional’…

    Yep. None this shit makes any real sense.

    Which is actually a huge problem.

    Because… the economic ‘point’ of a stock market, in capitalism, is more or less to act as a kind of giant, collective brain, that figures out how to efficiently and rationally allocate capital and investments.

    The ‘invisible hand’, and all that.

    So when that brain spends a decade or two more or less in a euphoric psychotic break… (“irrational exuberance”)… well… it doesn’t exactly make sound financial choices.

    Which translates into about two decades of nonsensical investment of a society’s resources.

    Free market fundamentalism kind of requires that you assume capital markets are rational and efficient, always.

    … But … they aren’t.

    Less ‘theoretically’: Its a giant gambling machine, and if you’re not rigging the game yourself, 99.9999% chance you’re the mark, you’re gonna lose.

    And you won’t see it coming, not untill its too late for you to get out intact.

    Economists have for a long time referred to state run lotteries as effectively an ‘idiot tax’, because anyone who can do fairly basic statistics also knows they’re very likely to lose money, thus, only idiots gamble.

    The stock market as it is now more or less represents a more complex version of the same kind of thing… you’ve got the day traders, and they almost always get their clocks cleaned, they just develop a neurotic-obsessive personality based on ‘no, I’m the one guy that can outsmart the market’.

    No, you can’t.



  • I’ve enjoyed both sides of the conversation you’ve been having with XeroxCool.

    But here, here’s an “alternate tech tree”.

    Take aeliopile.

    Scale it up a bit, make it out of a bit stronger alloy.

    … Fire it with a bellows, or a kiln.

    Alexandria? ~40AD?

    The Romans were making a crude form of steel for swords.

    I think you can fairly easily get that rpm and torque up.

    Oh, but the joints, the rotation points will heat up! It will deform!

    So have some dudes dousing it with a mixture of olive oil and water fairly regularly.

    Shit, set up a plumbing system, do it with the dudes turning Archimedes screws.

    … this is the civilization that had construction cranes, invented a self healing form of cement that we literally only figured out the actual recipe for within the last few years.

    I think its entirely plausible that if somebody had just managed to nudge this spinning screaming ball just a bit conceptually further, it could have snowballed.